Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 210.786877 255.074100 309.543508 382.579179 479.694904 6.069925e+02 7.910070e+02
2025-07-13 167.890817 222.701227 299.161646 417.814935 605.665242 9.080220e+02 1.471434e+03
2025-07-20 142.876023 202.037509 292.364588 448.978809 734.658567 1.285698e+03 2.603945e+03
2025-07-27 124.911198 185.409310 284.469607 472.369213 859.295399 1.740952e+03 4.466967e+03
2025-08-03 110.573824 170.539761 274.412585 486.768367 972.969003 2.267703e+03 7.503342e+03
2025-08-10 98.306059 156.329015 261.523620 490.456960 1065.251444 2.833505e+03 1.228497e+04
2025-08-17 87.116108 141.857471 244.713692 480.089523 1118.198926 3.347118e+03 1.904807e+04
2025-08-24 77.794018 129.212110 228.782180 466.709780 1157.193473 3.872754e+03 2.943701e+04
2025-08-31 70.023087 118.293239 214.231789 452.356083 1187.190098 4.420341e+03 4.594044e+04
2025-09-07 68.127443 118.283939 222.294158 497.325737 1440.964495 6.546546e+03 1.385966e+05
2025-09-14 63.565193 112.323212 216.262953 502.928992 1561.156548 8.238436e+03 3.501387e+05
2025-09-21 60.330685 108.612448 214.614412 520.670354 1747.263134 1.106128e+04 1.521928e+06
2025-09-28 55.862311 101.975769 205.485490 515.005649 1838.574743 1.359348e+04 9.149222e+06
2025-10-05 54.792384 102.449235 213.630234 567.457741 2272.909177 2.309878e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 53.345950 101.884730 219.104283 614.125323 2751.200433 3.983890e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 51.462815 100.071938 220.984908 649.397492 3225.906060 6.807796e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 49.232395 97.167290 219.376888 671.220676 3655.567798 1.136150e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 46.686575 93.217169 214.166060 676.824662 3978.984500 1.789834e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 43.762568 88.051925 204.667754 661.088849 4098.242150 2.460636e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 40.995203 83.007035 194.811112 640.846597 4156.811657 3.276324e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 38.452223 78.283002 185.262937 619.214400 4181.208042 4.296048e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 38.346666 79.588782 194.057899 687.274487 5403.455296 2.033650e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 36.815278 77.130796 190.844779 695.813131 5926.617824 6.070253e+06 NaN